Super Bowl Sunday

As of tomorrow, we’ll have an NFL drought for 6 months until preseason action starts up again. It’s already been tough only having 2 games in the last 21 days, I’m already looking forward to the rooki draft in April. However, we still have the big game today, the big one, the one that gives them the ring they all want. 

Peyton Manning will be going for his second career Lombardi trophy, and it’s most likely his last chance. At 39 years old and with 292 career NFL games under his belt, his body has taken quite a toll. On the other sideline, we’ll have the quarterback that’s in the exact opposite situation. 

NFL-MVP Cam Newton is appearing in his first Super Bowl, and I’m betting it won’t be his last one. He’s clearly just now hitting the apex of his career and only at age 26. I must admit I was very high on him from the get go. I obviously play a lot of fantasy football and I drafted him in almost all my leagues his rookie season, when nobody believed in him yet. The analysts were saying he had a college-style game and it wouldn’t be successful at the pro level. This is one time I was right and it paid off, especially in my dynasty leagues.

Let’s get back to the game everyone will be watching tonight. The fact that everybody is talking so much about Peyton Manning and him being the oldest QB to start a Super Bowl, we almost forgot about Cam Newton winning 17 of the 18 games he’s played this season. That loss shouldn’t even count since it came in week 16 when they were already 15-0 and had the bye all wrapped up. 

In my opinion, there is NO WAY the Broncos can win today. I know I said that about the Patriots a couple weeks ago, but thanks to Belichick’s bonehead move of not taking the 3 points with 6 minutes left the Broncos actually won and get to play today. One of my favorite New England memes I saw on my Twitter feed this week was a picture of a little kid saying: “What? There’s still a Super Bowl without the Patriots in it?”. 

I’m sorry, but it’s a small miracle that Denver made it this far and clearly it’s been mostly thanks to their defense. The AFC is clearly a weaker conference. Unfortunately for them, Carolina is not starting it’s 11th different offensive line today (unlike New England 2 weeks ago) and the great Denver pass rush won’t have the same impact on the game. Carolina has a very solid O-line, paired up with also an extremely good defense. It’s their year, there’s no doubt about it. They’ve been doing everything right since September and I don’t see that changing all of a sudden in February. The Panthers are going to win this game easily.

I also have a couple stats of course:

Of the 50 QBs who played in the last 25 Super Bowls, Peyton Manning has the lowest regular season passer rating out of all of them

The Broncos will have the referee advantage. In games officiated by Blakeman, the Denver Broncos are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. On the flip side, the Carolina Panthers are 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS in games officiated by Blakeman.

Another good stat for the Broncos is this one. Teams that have ranked first in total defense during the regular season are 9-2 SU when playing in the Super Bowl. The Broncos D ranked 1st in total defense this year ... in the weaker AFC conference.

And now one for Cam Newton. Sunday will mark Cam Newton’s first Super Bowl appearance, while Peyton Manning will be under center for his fourth Super Bowl. Quarterbacks making their Super Bowl debut have won four consecutive matchups over signal-callers with previous Super Bowl experience.

The Carolina Panthers defeated the Arizona Cardinals by 34 points in the NFC Championship game on January 24 and in the process became just the sixth team since the merger to win a conference championship game by 30 or more points.

Finally, the nail on the coffin for the Broncos, hitting their only true bright spot. Their defense has an achilles heel, quarterbacks that can run. We all know Newton is one of the best when it comes to that part of the game. Of the 22 quarterback scrambles the Broncos were tasked with defending in 2015, 12 went for 10 or more yards.

Game Prediction:

Carolina 37

Denver 14